ENSO and Colorado

The El Niño - Southern Oscillation (also known as ENSO) refers to a cyclical pattern observed in the tropical Pacific Ocean. There are three phases of ENSO - El Niño, La Niña, and Neutral. These phases relate to the ocean temperature anomalies that are occurring at any given time. If the ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific are much warmer than average, then we are in an El Niño phase. If the temperatures are colder than average, we're in a La Niña. Climate.gov provides details on how exactly El Niño and La Niña conditions form. Read more...

El Niño Phase
La Niña Phase

The below graph shows how the ENSO phase has changed (or oscillated) over time. A couple of the strongest El Niño events include 1997 and 1982-83. Stronger La Niña events occurred in 1988 and 2011-2012. NOAA's Earth Systems Research Laboratory gives a nice discussion about past El Niño and La Niña events. Read more...

It's hard to believe, but the changing temperatures in the Pacific Ocean can impact weather all across the globe! Over the United States, for example, El Niño conditions can result in a wet winter for the southeast and a dry and warm winter in the Pacific Northwest. This happens because those changing ocean temperatures drive changes in atmospheric pressure, the jet stream, and overall weather patterns. The North Carolina State Climate Office has a great ENSO page that discusses ENSO impacts on the U.S. Read more...

Typical Winter El Niño Impacts
Typical Winter La Niña Impacts

For Colorado, the story is a little more uncertain. The complex topography of our state, our distant location from the oceans, and our sensitivity to a lot of other variables, means that ENSO competes with a lot of other forces in determining what our weather will be like! So, while ENSO does play a partial role in Colorado's climate, it's not always a guarantee.

Explore the links below to see how El Niño and La Niña impact temperature and precipitation anomalies around the United States.

El Niño & Temperature
November - March
May - September

La Niña & Temperature
November - March
May - September

El Niño & Precipitation
November - March
May - September

La Niña & Precipitation
November - March
May - September

For Colorado, you may notice that the strongest signal shows up in wintertime temperature anomalies during an El Niño, when the entire state is likely to experience overall below average temperatures. During a La Niña, the eastern plains are more likely to see above average temperatures in the winter and summer.

When looking at precipitation, there's even more uncertainty! The most dominant signal shows up during La Niña summers. At that time, much of Colorado has tended to experience slightly below average precipitation.

During an El Niño, no signal shows up over Colorado. This may be surprising for some of you. Thinking back to winters of the past during particularly strong El Niños (like 82-83 or 97-98) you may associate major Front Range blizzards with those seasons. And when you look at the years in the composite, you'll see that one of our largest blizzards (March 2003) also occurred during an El Niño year. But that signal is just not consistent enough to solely attribute it to ENSO or use it as a forecast for future El Niño winters.

Current ENSO Conditions

Current sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Pacific Ocean

An El Niño Watch was Issued June 2018
CPC/IRI PUBLISHED September 19, 2018 - In mid-September 2018, the east-central tropical Pacific waters reflected ENSO-neutral conditions, with near to slightly above-average SST. The key atmospheric variables also suggested neutral conditions, although weakly westerly low-level wind anomalies have developed. The subsurface water temperature continued to be above-average. The official CPC/IRI outlook calls for a 50-55% chance of El Niño development during fall, rising to 65-70% for winter 2018-19. An El Niño watch is in effect. The latest forecasts of statistical and dynamical models collectively favor El Niño development during fall, most likely maintaining weak strength during late fall and winter; most forecasters agree with this scenario. Read More...

Outlook

Potential Impacts

As our summer season comes to a close and our water year wraps up (Oct. 1 - Sep. 30), all eyes are now looking toward fall and what the coming cool season will bring. With dry conditions recently becoming worse in the northwest, there is concern since a typical fall/winter El Niño pattern is drier to the north. Where long-term drought conditions have dominated to the south, there is hope that the typical fall/winter El Niño pattern will bring wetter conditions and end the drought. Where that wet/dry boundary actually lines up is uncertain, so only time will tell.

ENSO News

What does an El Niño Watch mean? - The El Niño and La Niña Alert System

Read the latest ENSO blog entry at Climate.gov - September 2018 ENSO Update: back to school
"The expectation is that when the sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific warm above the El Niño threshold, there will be increased rising air and cloudiness in the central Pacific, which changes the entire atmospheric circulation over the tropical Pacific, weakening the Walker circulation."